The Kondratieff Wave describes alternating long-term, high growth and These waves are long cycles, lasting years and consisting of. The Kondratieff Cycle is a theory of Long Waves that describes economic and social development that is determined by periodic cycles of about years. Overview Not well known in most financial circles, the K-Wave (as the Kondratieff Cycle is also known) is a roughly year economic business cycle.

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The Marxist scholar Ernest Mandel revived interest in long wave theory with his essay predicting the end of the long boom after five years and in his Alfred Marshall lectures in Technological Revolutions and Financial Kondrratieff In doing so, they were able to trace the Kondratieff cycles all the way back to the 10th century.

Debt deflation was largely ignored in favor of the ideas of John Maynard Keynes in Keynesian economicsbut has enjoyed a resurgence of interest since the s, both in mainstream economics and in the heterodox school of post-Keynesian economicsand has subsequently been developed by such post-Keynesian economists as Hyman Minsky [15] and Steve Keen. As soon as an innovation or a series of innovations becomes available, it becomes more efficient to invest in its adoption, extension and use than in creating new innovations.

Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression of – | Financial Sense

It was the great era of big steel. Any influence of technology during the cycle that began in the Industrial Revolution pertains mainly to England. The railroad and the Bessemer converter led the economy to the second Kondratieff.

Kondratieff cycles can be empirically demonstrated for more than years. Wikom Publishing house, Wegscheid. The Previous Kondratieff Cycles. However, Bitcoin behaves more like an kondratiefv rather than a currency now, since people are buying it for capital appreciation rather than to use it for transactions. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published.

It is a situation when the new technology, which originally increased a capacity to utilize new sources from nature, reached its limits and it is not possible to overcome this limit without an application of another new technology.

Thus, it would be wise for our political and economic leaders to accept the lessons of history and realize that based on comprehensive economic evidence, following the systemic collapse of world banking and credit, things are likely to get much worse before they get better.


Signal analysis is usually done with equipment. At the same time it ended, the sixth Kondratieff cycle began. How much this matters is disputed: It was after Bessemer steel was introduced that railroads had their highest growth rates; however, this period is usually labeled the “age of steel”. Moreover, there is a lack of agreement over the cause of this phenomenon. How to succeed in a resource-limited world.

Thus, as we focus our analysis on kondartieff modern times we find that periods of “K” expansion and contraction bring with them phases of bigger booms and busts.

Visit your Subscriber Features to find updated information. Leading sectors and world powers: According to the innovation theory, these waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors.

Goldschmidt is of the opinion that different fundamental innovations and their economic stimuli do not exclude each other, they mostly vary in length, and their benefit is not applicable to all participants in a “market.

If you are willing to hold through that and capture the subsequent big upside, then you will not need to worry so much about timing the market now. The first long cycle was triggered by the invention of the steam engine and fundamental innovations in textile manufacturing the fly-shuttle loom, the spinning mule, the spinning jenny. The main stress is put on technological progress and new technologies as decisive factors of any long-time economic development.

There are very few heroes in economics but for me one of the patron saints of that profession should be Nikolai Kondratiev who was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in Since then, economic growth is primarily defined as growth in the information sector.

Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression of 2013 – 2020

Alternatively, when ‘s global economic panics were not met with sufficient wealth-distributing government policies internationally, a dozen major revolutions resulted—perhaps also creating an effect we now call World War I. Goldschmidt searched for patterns and proposed that there is a phase shift and overlap of the so-called Kondratiev cycles konratieff IT and health shown in the figure.

By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. This crash is the Kondratieff Winter. The triggers for these long waves are groundbreaking inventions eave are called basic kondratierf below. In economicsKondratiev waves also called supercyclesgreat surgeslong wavesK-waves or the long economic cycle are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. The Long Waves in the World Economy.


Some believe that not enough is attributed to actual human errors that have created some of the economic situations of history, and too much to the inevitability of the characteristics of the phases of the waves.

In recent decades there has been considerable progress in historical economics and the history of technology, and numerous investigations of the relationship between technological innovation and economic cycles. The causes documented by Kondratiev waves, primarily include inequity, opportunity and social freedoms; although very often, much more discussion is made of the notable effects of these causes as well.

Many believe that the conclusions and results of his research are biased because he highlighted and used only certain events to reach his conclusions and left out other important data and events that could have affected his outcomes. This correlation can be seen in the example of Great Britain. When such regularity exists over such a long period and given the konrratieff economic, technological and social changes that took place during this time, it can simply not be a coincidence.

More common today is the division into four periods with a turning kondgatieff collapse between the kondrtieff and second phases.

Kondratiev wave

According to this theory, we are currently at the turning-point of the 5th Kondratiev. The long cycle supposedly affects all sectors of an economy. More recently the physicist and systems scientist Tessaleno Devezas advanced a causal model for the long wave phenomenon based on a generation-learning model [28] and a nonlinear dynamic behaviour of information systems.

The picture is doubly exacerbated by increasingly more integrated world funding mechanisms which means these booms and busts are global rather than local and increasingly more political than economic.